Presentation to the Honorable Board Members Worcester County Board of Elections on July 2, 2025
Dear Board Members,
At your last Board meeting held on January 8, 2025, I again addressed my concerns about mail-in ballots. As I have mentioned at previous Board meetings, I have reviewed statewide election results in the 2020, 2022 and 2024 General Elections. I have noted that in Maryland’s 17 rural counties, Republican candidates for major offices do well in in-person vote totals but consistently lose in mail-in vote totals. In the last three General Election cycles, there have been rare exceptions to this phenomenon. Once in 2020, the Democratic candidate for U.S. House of Representatives in Harford County had a slight edge over the Republican in in-person race totals (50.6% to 49.4%). The other exception occurred in 2024, when Governor Larry Hogan, a Republican, did very well with Mail-in vote totals.
However, in rural Maryland counties over the last three General Election cycle, usually there is a near 100% flip between in-person vote totals and mail-in vote totals in most major races. Generally, the Republican candidate was ahead over the Democrat in in-person vote totals by election night; but, when the mail-in totals were counted, albeit smaller numbers, a flip occurred in favor of the Democratic candidate. This seems statistically impossible, since the Mail-in votes are presumably coming from the same rural population base as the In-person votes.
I have identified the 17 rural counties as Allegany, Calvert, Caroline, Carroll, Cecil, Dorchester, Frederick, Garrett, Harford, Kent, Queen Anne’s, St. Mary’s, Somerset, Talbot, Washington, Wicomico and Worcester.
At the conclusion of my presentation this past January, I was asked if I had reviewed data to determine the ratio of Democrat to Republican voters who vote by mail. I responded that I had not. Following the meeting I pondered that question and considered it to be a fair and important one, and to be thorough I needed to know the answer.
According to data published on the website of the Maryland State Board of Elections, specifically the “Official Turnout (By Party and County)” reports for 2020, 2022 and 2024, Democrats routinely outnumber Republicans in voting by mail in the 17 rural counties. This has been consistent in the past three General Election cycles, except for Garrett County where Republican voters consistently outnumber Democrats in voting by mail. A review of the last three General Elections for the 17 counties, including Garrett County, indicate:
- In 2020, Democrat voters outnumbered Republican voters 63.9% to 36.1% in mail-in balloting.
- In 2022, Democrat voters outnumbered Republican voters 64.9% to 35.1% in mail-in balloting.
- In 2024, Democrat voters outnumbered Republican voters 61.7% to 38.3% in mail-in balloting.
However, the story does not stop here.
I have provided the Election Director with a copy of my full exhibits that reveal distinct patterns of In-person voting vs. mail-in voting for many of the major races throughout Maryland over the last three General Election cycles. For brevity, I have attached excerpts from the full exhibits that pertain specifically to Worcester County.
In the exhibits, you will notice that Republican in-person vote totals generally match or exceed Republican turnout. However, Republican mail-in vote totals generally fall behind the Republican mail-in turnout. While Republicans do well in reported in-person turnout and the Republicans candidate often exceeds the Republican turn-out rate, the mail-in data reveals that the Republicans not only do poorly in mail-in turnout, but even more glaring is the fact that votes for Republican candidates run noticeably below their turnout rate.
Why would Republican turnout be strong in in-person voting in these rural counties, and the votes cast for Republican candidates reflect a consistent and expected pattern; but reported lower Republican mail-in turnout reveals a consistently lower vote total for Republican candidates?
In addition, I have further reviewed the 7 other political jurisdictions where Democrats generally do well in both in person and mail-in vote totals, with two notable exceptions. President Trump won the in-person vote total in Anne Arundel County in 2020 and 2024. He also won the in-person vote total in Baltimore County in 2020. He lost the mail-in totals in both Counties by nearly the same wide margins.
Something odd of particular note occurred in the 2022 Gubernatorial General Elections. In Baltimore City Dan Cox, a Republican, garnered 10.6% of the in person vote totals, but only 5.6% of the mail-in vote totals. In Prince George’s County, Mr. Cox garnered 10% of the in-person vote totals, but only 5.4% of the mail-in vote totals. Why do mail-in Republican votes drop?
I maintain that something is not right. Mail-in voting needs to be further studied and investigated. Thank you for your time and attention, and your service to the community.
Sincerely,
Vincent dePaul Gisriel, Jr.
Mr. Gisriel’s presentation can be viewed at the 21:30 minute mark: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8i9Z7xtBwg&list=PLuNE2V5VcTvTM6V0mfeq61Lr-IxqxBSU3
